Saturday, 5am – Vic
Biden has just doubled his lead in Arizona with the latest release of votes. He’s now 22,000 up on Trump. So let’s do a quick breakdown of where the electoral college stands.
Biden: 253 +
Arizona = 264 +
Nevada = 270 +
Pennsylvania = 290 +
Georgia = 306
306 was exactly how many electoral college votes Trump had in 2016. I do love a good coincidence.
Saturday 4.15am – Vic
All the states are coming in now. In Nevada, Biden has extended his lead, same in Arizona. His lead in Pennsylvania is expanding. This is a done deal now I think.
I should be in bed, but all the good stuff is happening now. Dang!
If Trump decides to fight, good luck, he’ll be out on January 20.
Saturday, 3.57am – Vic
I should not be awake, but a LOT of results are coming in. Biden has just extended his lead in Nevada, and he’s also flipped Pennsylvania. That’s a clear and easy victory for Joe Biden.
In the meantime, Fox news is telling their anchors and journalists to not refer to Biden as “President Elect” which is what you call the elected president before they take office (which happens on January 20), because of the outstanding lawsuits (two of which have already been dismissed for lack of evidence).
Friday, 11.57pm – Vic
Georgia has flipped to Biden. That brings him, if he holds it, to 269 electoral college votes. This is HUGE. If he keeps it, with Arizona, he’s the winner. If he gets Pennsylvania, where the lead there for Trump has gone from 300,000 votes to just over 20,000, he’ll easily win. Or he could hold his lead in Nevada.
I’m hoping to sleep in late tomorrow and wake up to a new brighter future.
Friday, 2.09pm – Vic
Biden is looking like the winner. In Pennsylvania, in the late vote, he’s picking up about 80%, which is what I said way back at the beginning, which seems about three weeks ago.
Arizona is still up in the air, but he’s closing in on Georgia too. There’s a good chance he’ll pick up Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, sealing Trump’s fate.
Thursday, 3.03pm – Vic
Well, like everything Donald J Trump touches, this election has turned into a dumpster fire. While Biden looks on track to win Arizona and Nevada, possibly Philadelphia, and therefore the Presidency, Trump is disingenuously claiming victory and, naturally, voter fraud.
He wants to stop the count of legally cast ballots in states where he’s ahead. But as we all know, you can’t just stop counting when the result favours you. The count has to be completed. Philadelphia, where he currently leads, is a case in point. As he bitches about ballots continuing to be counted after election day, it’s worth noting that the reason they’re still being counted, is because his own Republican Governor wouldn’t allow the electoral officials there to start counting until the polls had closed. So it’s going to take a little while yet.
It’s looking promising for Biden, but we’ve got a day or so to go before all the results are in. Sit tight kids.
11.12pm – Vic
Holy McMoley. So ABC (US) have called Arizona for Biden. And what I’m hearing now, is that as the mail voting comes in on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they’re leaning very left. I’m particularly proud of Wisconsin, the home of Laverne and Shirley.
11pm – Vic
Yep, still here. There may be a little bit of time where I fell asleep on the couch. I didn’t sleep well last night. So here’s where we’re at. Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, but Trump is ahead in Michigan.
Truly, we’re not going to have an answer tonight. But good lord, Chris Cuomo is really quite hot.
8.47pm – Vic
Damn gurl! Wisconsin just dropped a whole bunch of stats. Biden is now ahead. And there’s more to come. We’re in the game and it’s going to the mat. Hell, I’ll go to the mat for this.
I once dated a guy called Matt. He was shit.
8.18pm – Vic
We’re waiting on a press conference from Wisconsin. Biden polled pretty well here before the election, so we’ll know a lot more about where the election stands when thats out. It was supposed to start 20 minutes ago.
7.43pm – Vic
The Associated Press have called Arizona for Biden. That brings his chance of winning to 94%. However, it’s all going to come down to the rust belt.
7.06pm – Vic
Okay, so where is it shaking out? Here’s what the map looks like right now.
This is from Five Thirty Eight’s calculator of winner likelihood. As you can see, Biden currently has an 82% chance of victory. There’s still a route for Trump, but it’s pretty bloody unlikely. God, he’s a dickhead.
I’ve been drinking. Can you tell?
6.55pm – Vic
EVERYONE, JUST CALM DOWN.
6.08pm – Vic
Trump is about to make a statement, and all the commentators are doing these huge disclaimers explaining that “the president doesn’t get to call the election, and it’s not being stolen”. Apparently his campaign folks are in a white hot rage because Fox News called Arizona for Biden, even though it’s only at 80% of the count.
Lol.
5.57pm – Vic
Well, things are really heating up. Firstly, the margins in Georgia have tightened up considerably. I’d frankly thought this was gone. But it turns out there’s still a good 30% of postal votes to be counted in VERY blue counties, especially around Atlanta, and Biden might just pull it off yet. Same goes for Pennsylvania Both Nevada and Arizona (which Trump one last year) are looking good for Biden. Don’t give up yet lefties!
4.34pm – Vic
At the moment, Trump voters are going to be looking pretty smug about the Big Three. However, it’s worth noting that the big counties, the ones around Philadelphia, Pittsburg and Scranton are only at 17% of the mail in vote which is largely for Biden. There’s plenty of space for him to close that gap. Look at Virginia. Earlier today they were hugely for Trump, now it’s been called for Biden. With the map as it stands right now, Five Thirty Eight is still giving Biden an 87% chance of winning, and Georgia is now favoured for him on the New York Times election forecast. It’s anyone’s game.
We just have to wait it out. I suspect I may be up all night.
3.23pm – Vic
Right now, Biden is sitting at 192 electoral college votes, with Trump at 114. To win, the candidate needs 270 or more. It looks like it’s all going to come down to the three rust belt states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. We probably won’t have an answer until tomorrow or the day after. I’ll keep updating as the swing states are called, but now might be a good time to think about what you’re going to do for dinner tonight.
3pm – Vic
Well, Trump is making a better showing than I expected. But we have a long way to go. There’s a lot of early votes yet to be counted, which we know generally favour Biden. Those states include Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Biden has been has been polling well.
In other news, Arizona is looking like it’s heading Biden’s way. We’re still waiting on final numbers from North Carolina too.
It’s going to be a looooong night.
1.36pm – Vic
Hoo GURL! The latest.
1.30pm – Rach
As numbers start coming in, a reminder from your friendly, gorgeous mods here: THIS WILL TAKE A WHILE. The counting may go on days because of the great work organising people to safely vote via mail or in person ahead of time.
Do not jump to conclusions either way. Keep your powder dry.
1.10 – Rach
As polls close in Michigan, now is the time I shamelessly namedrop that the Michigan Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, is an old friend of mine from my uni days. Jocelyn went to Wellesley while I was at Boston University, but we met and bonded at the 1996 re-election campaign for Senator John Kerry. Photo as evidence. Just me, Gloria Steinem and the then-future SoS.
Jocelyn is a fierce voting rights advocate, a total expert in election law, and not for nothing, was personally called out by Trump for being a “radical SOS” for having the temerity to take steps to preserve voters’ rights during the pandemic. I urge you to keep an eye on Sec. Benson’s upward trajectory!
12.50 – Rach
As the Ohio returns start coming in, analysts whose opinions I trust are reminding us that the way that north eastern Ohio votes is strongly indicative of how western Pennsylvania is voting, as they are very similar demographics. So if they’re tending Biden Blue in northeastern Ohio, that’s a good bellwether!
12.30pm – Vic
It’s too early to call a lot of states, but early indications show Ohio looking pretty good for the Democrats with 51% of the vote counted. Having said that, it could change in the next hour or so. If Biden wins the Buckeye State, Trump has no way to win. Meanwhile, my chief pollster is keeping a close eye on the blog.
Midday – Vic
Florida is going right down to the wire – the swingiest state of swingers with Trump ahead by just 10,000 votes. The big news is that Texas is looking blue right now but that’s likely to change. Ohio is also headed to Biden right now, but again, it’s too early to call.
Ooh! So exciting! I’m a quivering mess!
11.46am – Vic
Around 70% of the vote has been counted in Florida and it’s neck and neck. The lead has swapped five times in the last half hour. The Sunshine State is a must-win for Trump if he’s to have any hope of retaining the presidency. Biden is ahead by around one point at time of writing, and my heart is pounding out of my chest.
11.06am – Vic
We’re starting to get the first results from Florida, the swingiest of swing states full of swingers. We take a look at the early results and who to watch.
9.19am – Vic
Americans are flocking to the polls in unprecedented numbers. Here’s what you need to know.
There’s a lot of battleground states to watch this cycle. We’ll be posting live updates as the results look likely, but it could be days or weeks before a final winner is called. This is largely due to the walloping early voter and absentee ballot turnout, that has seen more than 100 million Americans already cast their votes.
It’s not looking good for Trump
To win, Trump would need to win Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden is polling ahead in all of these except for Ohio, where trump is ahead by less than two points.
We can expect some results to start coming in at around midday. But for Pennsylvania, a critical tipping point state, results won’t be known for several days.
Be prepared for Republicans to show an early lead as the polling booth votes are counted first. When postal and early votes are compiled, Democrats will close the gap, and we expect, surpass Trump votes as the afternoon progresses.
Rachel and I will be here all day. Brace yourself, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Stars and Strike 